Could the crisis lead to a deflationary spiral? Modelling the United States in a liquidity trap
The Federal Funds Rate has stood at practically zero since the last quarter of 2008; the world's largest economy is in a liquidity trap. Allowing the nominal interest rate to reach its lowest value severely limits the possibilities of monetary policy and can have grave consequences on economic equilibrium and stability: an economy in a liquidity trap can easily find itself in a deflationary spiral. The chances of such a situation and of avoiding it were discussed by the author in the November 2007 number of the Közgazdasági Szemle. The theoretical approach is complemented here by empirical analysis as to whether the crisis could lead to a deflationary spiral in the United States.
Examination of the network dynamics of the uncovered interbank forint market before the liquidity crisis and after
The article examines the changes in the network of Hungary's uncovered interbank forint market over the period December 2000 to March 2009. It presents the general features of the market (volume, interest rates, concentration etc.) and its basic network. It is found that the features were largely stable in the first half of the period, but some of the indicators began to change significantly in 2006–7: the concentration of borrowers increased, average distance and average degree declined, as did the size of the core of the network. These signs pointed to the fact that the banks had sensed an increase in credit risk even before the crisis broke and were becoming increasingly choosy selective in their lending. Meanwhile, however, there were no indications of change in the general market indicators (volume, interest rates, or volatility of these) right up to October 2008, when the change of regime was clear in all indicators. Finally, the authors analyse in detail the behaviour of each participant and show that the roles of some altered drastically with the crisis (e. g. sources became consumers and vice versa).
Verseny és szabályozás
A new model for price movement in electric power
The article concerns the statistical features of the hourly prices on auction-based markets for electric power. The purpose is to use the latest research findings to present the main statements about the hourly price for electric power in a new light, so that they can serve later as a basis for price modelling. The phenomena are viewed through the price data of products traded on the EEX and Nord Pool power exchanges. It emerges that several ideas about the statistical behaviour of electric power prices have to be reviewed.
The role of sources of finance in the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises
The study sets out to provide an overall picture of the factors determining the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises and the role of sources in finance in the growth of such firms. To decide from the economic point of view what type of intervention in favour of the sector would be justified, the author examines what role small and medium-sized firms play in Hungary and other European countries in the light of theories on the development of capital structure. The study then turns to the factors affecting the growth rate of the firms. It is shown how some aspects of the size dispersion of firms can be explained by the presence of financing constraints, and what empirically verifiable connections subsist between growth and the individual attributes deciding it. Also discussed are the effects on the growth of firms exercised by the external and internal financing opportunities available to them.