Midterm options for Hungarian industrial development - variables and scenarios
An evaluation of the main constraints of midterm Hungarian industrial development is essential for a feasible supplyside economic policy. These constraints include the international, economic policy, monetary and growth conditions of business, whereas the overall business climate is separately tackled. The main scenarios for the midterm future of Hungarian industry are built on combinations of the favourable, average and crisistype development patterns of these variables.
Some important problems of the reform of the pension system
The study attempts to outline a possible pension system for a few coming decades, considering the Hungarian traditions, particularities as well as the societal expectations towards the pension system and the needs. The pension system that may be proposed consists of three elements: a basic pension more purposefully realizing the social and direct solidarity functions; an obligatory social insurance workpension which is more differantiated than the present one and better reflects the insurance conditions of the active lifepath through which contribution is paid; and a gradually spreading voluntary pension insurance operating under state supervision, yet relying on self organization. The basic pension could be covered from public taxes, the workpension could be financed under a payasyougo system of contributions by workers and employers and by a reserve capital levelling out the transitional economic and demographic fluctuations, while the voluntary insurance schemes could operate with the capitalized voluntary payments as a cover. The new workpension system will be a pension system relying on points, expectably most effectively reflecting the insurance and economic conditions, and it may come into force around the turn of the millennium.
The failure of transition to market economy
The authors survey in their paper some points of the legal framework of the decision process related to reorganization and the windigup procedure and review the cost elements of these procedures. In this context they also enlarge on the main feaures of the regulations followed in transforming the Hungarian economy. Finally, they confront their statements with the experiences and data of recent years, stressing those characteristics which indicate that - under our particular circumstances - the Hungarian bankruptcy procedure is distorted and points towards liquidation. In an economy where the institutions of market economy are just developing, a too strict bankruptcy procedure may cause even graver problems instead of supporting the successful transformation. The roots of the problem are not of legal nature, thus the solution cannot be found simply in a modification of the bankruptcy procedure.
The enterprise and its environment at the turn of the millennium - as seen by the manager
Several theories of the firm were developed in the decades of the nearer and earlier past. But most of them all too simplify the interrelations the managers have to face now and, particularly, in the years around the millennium. It has become, namely, ever more obvious that the managers also have to take into account resources of a new type; also the scope of enterprise functions has significantly expanded; the markets and market competition positions may be characterized by new features; and also the role of the "background factors" of the market as well as of the infrastructure has grown. All this results in that many more factors and effects have to be taken into account when identifying the strong and weak points of the firms, when determining the possibilities and menaces of the environment as well in developing the enterprise goals and strategies. The article surveys these new factors and interrelations.
"Stubborn" stability and continuous rearrangement (Saving behaviour of households amidst the transformation of the economic system)
The study analyses the saving of households with empirical tools, using the data system of the Hungarian Household Panel. Exploiting the possibilities offered by longitudinality it works out the notion of "saving path" and then shows that behind the slow shifts perceivable on macrolevel a much more intensive microlevel dynamics can be found. The author extends to two hypotheses relating to savings: the thesis of consuming savings and the idea of concentration of savings. Analysing the societal characteristics of microlevel saving behaviour the author finds that it is household income, life cycle, consumer aspirations, the qualification of the head of the household and elements of wealth that mostly explain whether a household has savings or not, and if it has, how much it has.