Dilemmas of the Hungarian economic policy
The article examines the dilemmas of the Hungarian economic policy, placing it into a wider economic perspective and setting out from the measures prescribed stabilization program. The author analyses the interrelations among the three gravely distressing tasks of the postsocialist transition: improvement of the external balances and domestic financial equilibrium, and creation of the conditions of sustainable growth. For the moment, a well perceptible improvement of the external equilibrium is the most urgent task; the shortterm measures have to serve first of all this purpose. Unfortunately, the package of shortterm measures has not yet been embedded into a convincing medium and longterm reform program. Finally, the article analyses the political conditions of economic stabilization and emphasesizes the importance of joining the social forces and of self restraint.
Growth, failure and cycles (Truncation and spectrum of the infinite model)
W. Leontief proposed an infinite linear model of economic growth. Yet the computations have been performed with a finite section of the model. Even this finite part can be selected in several ways. The originally published form fields the track of the liquidation of the economy. This is why the author proposes a different solution which truncates the theoretically doubly infinite matrix into a finite one in another way. The two kinds of truncation produce two characteristically different paths of economic doom and economic growth. Full equilibrium of the growth can always be only the solution of the untruncated, that is, of the infinite matrix. Here, too, the possibility of a second equilibrium path emerges, though of a declining one. This is why the author attempts to use the model - on the basis of the theory of R. Godwin - also for the modeling of economic fluctuation. This allows the computation of the length and dispersion of the cycles and a uniform presentation of the possible forms of movement of the system.
Money, financial mediators and the real economy
In modern macroeconomic theory the opinion strongly holds its own, that the financing structure and the operation of the financial system are, as a matter of fact, inessential from the point of view of the business cycles, as the latter are fundamentally of real origin. Attached to this, many are of the opinion that the changes in the stock of money are not external factors for the real economy, but adjust to its demand for money. Another important characteristic of the mainstream economics of the latest decades has been that the logical linking point of the real sphere and the financial sphere is the category of money. At the same time, in recent years quite a few empirical and analytical analysts have recognized (or, at least, have not refuted) that the operation of the financial (monetary); mediating system has an impact on the real economy in many cases. Some of them called attention to the fact that the whole of the functioning of this mediating system is interesting from the viewpoint of the transmission mechanism. After a review of some ideas of the "classical" theories the study wishes to provide insight into the antecedents of such an approach in the history of theory and into some new research findings of our days...
Development of the private economy and employment
According to the labour survey of the Central Statistical Office covering the 4th quarter of 1994, employment continued to dimmish in 1994 by more than 50 000. The number of workplaces lost since 1990 approximates one and a half million. At the end of 1994 on annual average there were only 3 693 000 earners from the population aged 15-74. That is, from the population of the country of about 10 million, roughly 37 %. In 1990 the ratios still were 50-50 %. The dwindling employment constitutes the framework for the processes analysed in the study. The analysis is a continuation of the writing published in this periodical a year ago almost with the same title. From the trends plotted on the basis of new data and information not only the growing role of private economy in employment emerges more markedly, but so do the contrary effects accompanying its development: the gradual changes in the relative weights of abolishing, keeping and creating workplaces.
Outflows from Insured Unemployment in Hungary
Registered unemployment has represented over 10 % of the labour force in Hungary since mid1992 but little is known about the inflows and outflows that result in an unemployment stock of this size. The paper investigates the outflow from unemployment using a sample of nearly 40,000 spells of unemployment insurance (UI) receipt drawn from administrative records of the UI system. Outflows are remarkably low with UI exhaustion being the most common form of exit from the UI register for the individuals in the sample despite their often long entitlement periods to benefit. Following nonparametric analysis of the spell data the authors estimate a parametric competing risks model that summarises variation in exit probabilities with individual characteristics and region to five states - employment, subsidised employment, subsidised self employment, training, and public works. Finally, the paper draws conclusions for labour market policy in Hungary and for further research.
Integration theory: A draft for Eastern and Central Europe
Integration theory will face a new challenge with the Eastern enlargement of the EU. Functionalist approaches have tried to explain and generalize empirical experience of the evolution of West European integration, while federalist theory has set remote political objectives. Both theoretical schools are present in the actual model and the way of functioning of the EU. However, they seem to have reached the limits of their applicability in the West and offer little help for the integration of the East. The extension of the unique integration model of the EU may collide with systemic differences of the "transition economies", too. The article is an attempt to systematize such differences. The author proposes seven theses for a theoretical approach of the Eastern enlargement of the EU. The theses highlight certain parts of traditional integration methodology that should be avoided during the eastern enlargement of the West European structure and include some preconditions for both parties. New side tracks of integration are also defined like "regulatory federalism" or a special version of East European "political functionalism".
Determination of the price of arable land
The authors have worked out a method of valuation, well applicable also in practice, for the determination of a probable market price of land. According to them, the likely future price of land may be interpreted as the sum of two factors: on the one hand, the future value worked out from the geometrical series of expectable income from land and the sum of compound interest and, on the other hand, the present value of the future value of land coming about from the growth of the present price of land. The present value of income from land is determined by the annually forming income from land (land rent), its annual growth and the interest rate of capitalization as well as the discount rate.
The growing role of services
The study compares the service sector of the developed countries with that of the former socialist countries. This is particularly important from two points of view: on the one hand it may be assumed that several (though not all) characteristics of the WestEuropean development model have also appeared in Eastern and Central Europe. On the other hand, the Eastern and Central European region, starting late in the development of services, may adopt several technological and organizational solutions, thus saving the cost and time needed for experimenting. The authors have been led by these considerations and their purpose has been to explore the role and growth possibilities of productive, first of all business, services in Hungary, using the experiences of two Eastern European countries - Bulgaria and Slovenia - and of three countries belonging to the European Union: France and the later joining Greece and Spain. have also appeared in Eastern and Central Europe. On the other hand, the Eastern and Central European region, starting late in the development of services, may adopt several technological and organizational solutions, thus saving the cost and time needed for experimenting. The authors have been led by these considerations and their purpose has been to explore the role and growth possibilities of productive, first of all business, services in Hungary, using the experiences of two Eastern European countries - Bulgaria and Slovenia - and of three countries belonging to the European Union: France and the later joining Greece and Spain.